Why Transition:from Oil Dependence to a Resilient City

I've read that an "Oil Crunch" happens when the $ price of oil exceeds $100 a barrel for more than 2 months(this week the price came close to $90). The consequences of an oil crunch...economic recession - Is this just alarmism?

The latest International Energy Agency, not noted for its alamist approach, in the World Outlook Report 2010 reaffirms this week that we are living through very challenging times and they are set to continue for the foreseeable future:

" "The energy world is facing unprecedented uncertainty”, Mr Tanaka (Executive Director of the IEA) said. ... “We need to use energy more efficiently and we need to wean ourselves off fossil fuels by adopting technologies that leave a much smaller carbon footprint”. " (http://www.iea.org/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=402)

The number of financial institutions predicting oil prices of $100+ in 2011 reads like a who's who of international exchange dealers. Lloyds are predicting a potential $200 a barrel by 2013. "The Lloyd’s insurance market and the highly regarded Royal Institute of International Affairs, known as Chatham House, says Britain needs to be ready for “peak oil” and disrupted energy supplies at a time of soaring fuel demand in China and India..." (http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/oil/oil_prices/07/2010/lloyds-peak-oil-report-supply-crunch-200-oil-in-2013.html)

 

There have been an increasing number of reports over the last year from media, government and industry sources around the world warning us that:

“the era of cheap oil is over”.
(The International Energy Agency: ”World Energy Outlook 2008).

And...

“the era of cheap oil is behind us. We must plan for a world in which oil prices are likely to be both higher and more volatile and where oil price shocks have the potential to destabilise economic, political and social activity.”
(The Oil Crunch: A wake-up call for the UK economy. Second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security, Feb 2010)

Even oil industry insiders say…

"We are running the risk of another oil crisis when demand outstrips supply around 2014 or 2015. There won’t be enough oil and gas by the middle of the next decade."
(Christophe de Margerie, CEO of Total, September 2009)

And even the banks…

“This is our view – capacity has pretty much peaked in the sense that declines equal new resources,” (Iain Reid, Head of European Oil and Gas research at Macquarie Bank, September 2009)

Even George Bush!!!

"We gotta get off oil, American has got to change its habits,".. "It should be obvious to all, demand has outstripped supply, which makes prices go up."(George W. Bush, March 5th 2008)

We could have used hundreds of quotes (see ODAC for examples: http://odac-info.org/peak-oil-quotes) and references from government reports(e.g. Ofgem), industry reports, independent agencies(UKERC, Oil Depletion Analysis Centre) and the media from the Telegraph to the Guardian.

The reality remains that our systems in our modern, technically advanced cities, like Lancaster, are totally dependent on and built around the assumption of cheap, easily accessible oil.

Its's Time for a positive Approach -
We (people) are the Solution

Transition is about Lancaster people coming together to discover what we can do locally to create a more resilient Lancaster: A place where there is lots more food grown locally; where energy supplies are more local, renewable and sustainable; where there are more jobs local to where people live rather than built on the idea of cheap petrol and a longer drive.

Goods and services need to become resilient to changes in the price of oil and that takes forward planning and creative thinking. We as individuals and communities can and must take steps to protect our lives from the coming “Oil Crunch”.

90% of the UK energy supply comes from fossil fuels.

It takes 10 calories of fossil fuel energy to produce 1 calorie of food.

From transport to trainers, dvd’s to diets, plastics to pain killers – we do it all with oil.

The rational choice is to start planning to wean ourselves off this unsustainable addiction. We can and have made a start locally by looking at what we can do: from planting trees and growing and sharing food to building renewable energy systems and improving our insulation. We have even produced a local newspaper to spread the word. We need your ideas to help create a resilient future for Lancaster.

We can make a difference, we don't have to wait for someone else or be told what to do - Your ideas and actions count.

Lots of online resources onb Peak Oil linked from our resources page

Latest on Climate Change

If fossil fuel issues alone don't convince you that we need to start planning then you may also be feeling skeptical about climate change and the need to cut our carbon emmissions. Take a look at the Met Office web pages...

"The overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree on the fundamentals of climate change — that climate change is happening and has recently been caused by increased greenhouse gases from human activities.

The core climate science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was written by 152 scientists from more than 30 countries and reviewed by more than 600 experts. It concluded that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in man-made greenhouse gas concentrations."

Or if you want a non-governmental source with lots of technical detail try RealClimate:Climate Science for Climate Scientists web site for a detailed review of all the climate change scientific issues. You'll find links to the original IPCC reports and to many data sources...

"To those familiar with the science and the IPCC’s work, the current media discussion is in large part simply absurd and surreal."

One of my favourite sources of info is http://www.skepticalscience.com/

Become the solution by bringing your positive ideas for making Lancaster a resilient city. Come along to the Next Networking meeting(5th May see what's on page) or join a theme group. What ever you do START: Positive, Practical, Local.